Bank of England and US Federal Reserve Anticipated to Lower Interest Rates
The upcoming polling day for the US presidential election coincides with a significant announcement from the Federal Reserve regarding its interest rate decision on Thursday, which will be issued later than usual. This change follows the Bank of England’s statement earlier the same day. A reduction in borrowing costs by a quarter percentage point is widely expected; such a move would mark the second easing of monetary policy this year, adjusting the UK’s base rate to 4.75 percent and placing the Fed funds rate between 4.5 and 4.75 percent.
The Bank of England’s decision comes shortly after the recent budget announcement that included tax increases and elevated borrowing aimed at boosting investment. The Bank’s monetary policy committee is also set to release updated forecasts for economic growth and inflation over the next three years. Notably, the current consumer price inflation has dipped to 1.7 percent, falling below the Bank’s 2 percent target for the first time in three years.
In the US, the Federal Reserve will unveil its decision just after polls close in a tightly contested presidential election. Investors have begun to sell off US government bonds in anticipation of a possible Donald Trump victory, which they believe could lead to a larger federal deficit and increasing interest rates. Inflation in the US currently stands at 2.4 percent, slightly above the Federal Reserve’s 2 percent target.
Tuesday
Executives at Asos are eager to demonstrate to investors that their turnaround strategy is effective during their annual results presentation. The online fashion retailer, targeting younger consumers, has dedicated the past year to an extensive revamp, which includes clearing outdated inventory, enhancing brand quality, enforcing stricter return policies, and implementing more disciplined marketing approaches. Their latest results indicate they are ahead of schedule on their stock reduction initiative, with a significant reduction of £593 million in the first half of their financial year, nearing their full-year aim of £600 million. For the current financial year, sales are predicted to fall by 15.3 percent, while earnings before deductions are expected to increase by 2.4 percent. Finals: Asos, Associated British Foods, Smiths News. Trading updates: International Workplace, Kingspan, TI Fluid Systems, TP Icap, Weir. Economy: SMMT UK monthly car registrations figures, S&P Global UK Services PMI.
Wednesday
Marks & Spencer faces high expectations with its upcoming interim report. Earlier this year, the retailer proclaimed its strongest financial status since 1997 following a staggering 58 percent increase in pre-tax profits for the year ending in March. The revamped clothing line has successfully attracted young consumers, while strengthened investments in its food sector have yielded positive outcomes. Recent data indicates that 33 percent of households purchased food or beverages from M&S within the last 12 weeks, according to NielsenIQ.
Kate Calvert from Investec forecasts that the first-half results will reflect market share gains and strong overall sales momentum. She anticipates a pre-tax profit of £355 million for the six months ending in September, representing a 2 percent year-over-year rise. Finals: Dotdigital. Interims: Marks & Spencer, Totally. Trading updates: Arm, Beazley, Domino’s Pizza, JD Wetherspoon, Lancashire, Morgan Sindall, OSB, Persimmon, TBC Bank. Economy: S&P Global UK Construction PMI.
Thursday
Britain’s second-largest grocery chain is predicted to release robust first-half results, bolstered by growth in its food division. J Sainsbury has been steadily increasing its market share, with recent Kantar data for the 12 weeks leading up to September 29 indicating a rise to 15.2 percent. Analysts at Jefferies project that Sainsbury’s will report revenues of £17.5 billion. Interims: Auto Trader, BT, J Sainsbury, National Grid, Trainline. Trading updates: Derwent London, Endeavour Mining, Hikma Pharmaceuticals, Hiscox, ITV, John Wood, Rolls-Royce, Taylor Wimpey. Economy: Bank of England interest rate decision, US Federal Reserve rate decision.
Friday
In the aftermath of a travel surge following the pandemic, airlines have benefited from increased fare prices during the recovery phase, and IAG, the parent company of British Airways and Aer Lingus, appears to be maintaining its financial performance. Analysts forecast that the airline group will report operating profits of €1.776 billion for the third quarter, coinciding with the peak summer travel season, slightly surpassing the previous year’s €1.745 billion. Cumulatively, the first nine months of the year are expected to show profits around €3.085 billion. Trading updates: International Consolidated Airlines, Ocean Wilsons, Vistry.
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